The new fixed income opportunity Allianz Global Investors

navigating a changing bond markets

This reflects a growing confidence among investors that inflation may have peaked, and interest rate rises are coming to an end. There can be no assurance that performance will be enhanced or risk will be reduced for funds that seek to provide exposure to certain quantitative investment characteristics (“factors”). Exposure to such investment factors may detract from performance in some market environments, perhaps for extended periods. In such circumstances, a fund may seek to maintain exposure to the targeted investment factors and not adjust to target different factors, which could result in losses. Yes, the volume flow indicator can be used in day trading if it is used on the right timeframe.

Focus on credit quality

Any financial services given to any person by these entities by distributing this document in Australia are provided to such persons pursuant to the respective ASIC Class Orders and ASIC Instrument mentioned below. Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant. Simple Taylor-type rules implied the Fed was nine months late to start raising rates in 2022. Using those same rules today would imply the Fed is already late to cut (see Figure 2). Yet these rules aren’t well-suited to prescribing policy in the face of supply shocks, and it’s uncertain where inflation will gravitate once pandemic-related effects more fully fade. Some asset-backed securities such as autos and consumer finance are pricing in a higher probability of recession – offering extra compensation.

  • Active management allows us to more nimbly seize upon relative value opportunities as they arise.
  • References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable.
  • Cash yields remain elevated, but investors can miss out by sitting in cash too long.
  • The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Is the Volume Flow Indicator reliable in volatile markets?

There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised. We believe the Fed will remain steadfast in ensuring inflation has truly collapsed. This material contains general information only and does not take into account an individual’s financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial professional before making an investment decision.

Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 Trading Strategy – Rules, Backtest, Futures Example

Since the indicator shows volume and market trends, you can combine it with price action analysis tools, such as trendlines, chart patterns, and candlestick patterns. Even when it is not built into the trading software, you can get a custom-made volume flow indicator for the platform by coding one yourself or paying a professional to do that for you. To set up the volume flow indicator on your trading chart, check whether your trading platform has a built-in volume flow indicator.

How to set up the Volume Flow Indicator?

navigating a changing bond markets

We expect this disinflation to continue in 2024, with headline and core measures dipping into the 2%–3% range year-over-year across DM. This, plus the potential for a faster cutting cycle, should raise the prospects for a soft landing. This year, however, U.S. growth is likely to move more in line with the rest of DM into stagnation or mild contraction. Real savings buffers should soon return to pre-pandemic levels, as inflation has eroded the nominal value of households’ total wealth. Fiscal policy will likely be contractionary across DM, with the economic drag from higher borrowing costs continuing to build. Tariffs can lower consumption, but could also dampen imports – so for the domestic economy the result is not always clear.

This and other information can be found in the Funds’ prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. But if you are swing trading, the navigating a changing bond markets 4-hourly and daily time frames may be your best options. However, the best way to know the best time frame for your trading style and the market you’re trading will be to backtest the different timeframes for that style of trading.

To interpret the volume flow indicator, you have to understand the two simple signals it generates — centerline crossovers and divergences. Centerline or zero-line crossovers refer to the indicator rising above or falling below the centerline. When the indicator rises above the centerline and stays up, the trend is likely up, and when it crosses below the centerline and stays down, the trend is likely down. One unique thing about the indicator is that it uses a volatility threshold to take into account minimal price changes and another threshold to eliminate excessive volume. Also, the indicator accommodates only the latest 6-month volume action and not the entire data loaded in the chart.

The clean-energy transition and the drive to create a more inclusive society are transforming the global economy. With climate change continuing to affect companies and communities around the world, a successful transition to a low-carbon economy is more important than ever. This decarbonization push will require changes across the economy, especially in high-emitting sectors such as agriculture, construction, heavy industry and transport. Post-pandemic supply chain normalization has already eased inflation measures off their peak in 2022.

We use scenario planning as part of our risk management process to position for a broad set of macro and market outcomes. Because yield curves are unusually flat today, investors don’t need to greatly extend duration – a gauge of sensitivity to changes in interest rates, which is most pronounced in long-dated bonds – to unlock potential value. Intermediate bond maturities can help investors pursue attractive yield along with potential price appreciation should bonds rally, as occurred in late 2023 and as often happens in an economic slowdown. Starting yields, which historically are highly correlated with returns, are still near the highest levels in 15 years, offering both attractive income and potential downside cushion. Inflation-adjusted yields also remain elevated as inflation continues to abate (see Figure 3). We continue to see Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a reasonably priced source of inflation protection, should upside inflation risks materialize.

If 2022 marked a regime change in bond markets, with rising yields and elevated volatility, 2023 may be the year when investors can prepare for the opportunities that market shifts bring. In essence, given higher income from bonds than in recent years, fixed income is “investable” again. Rising consumer prices and an unusually rapid climb in interest rates meant inflation zoomed back into focus in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.